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The German greens' astonishing result in Baden-Württemberg hints at eventual breakthrough for Caroline Lucas and co
When Ed Miliband did his bit for the alternative vote yes campaign this week, most of the attention focused on his newfound willingness to share a platform with Liberal Democrats. And rightly so. Yet it was the third party leader on Tuesday's platform, the one sitting behind Miliband in the video clips, Caroline Lucas of the Greens, who got me thinking too. Because if events fall Lucas's way, and if her party has the nerve and resources to exploit them, this could be the breakthrough decade for the Green party.
This is certainly a week for taking Green politics more seriously than most do much of the time. The reason is the astonishing result of Sunday's two state-level elections in Germany. In the first of these, in the state of Rheinland-Pfalz, the Greens were the only party to significantly increase their share of the vote – up by 11%, thus giving them a share of power with the Social Democrats (SPD). But it was the other result that really took the breath away. In Baden-Württemberg, centred on Stuttgart, the Greens were the only party to boost their share, by 13% this time, vaulting past the SPD into second place. The upshot is that the Greens now lead a state-level coalition government (with the SPD as junior partners) for the first time in German history.
And not just in any German state, either. Baden-Württemberg is an economic powerhouse. It's probably where your washing machine or your cooker was made, quite likely your computer too, and perhaps even, if you are lucky and rich or both, your car. That's right. It's a place with 5% annual economic growth, where in a technical sense there is full employment, and where they make Mercedes-Benz cars. And now it has elected a Green-led government.
It's worth reflecting on this for a moment. Most of the people who switched to the Greens last Sunday had previously voted for Angela Merkel's CDU, the equivalent of our Conservatives. And even though the local state government – a conservative-liberal coalition like Merkel's and like Britain's – was unpopular, it wasn't the largest opposition party, the SPD (the equivalent of the Labour party), which benefited. It was the previously unsuccessful Greens. If nothing else, these elections have been a thumbs-down verdict on the SPD. So often the electoral pacesetter on the European left, the SPD now struggles to hold on to more than one German vote in four. And it is the Greens who are now in many ways its greatest electoral rival – as well as its most probable governmental partner.
Hang on, though. Can't all this be put down to an unrepeatable set of circumstances, with the Greens surging because of the combined political impact of the post-tsunami radiation leaks at the Fukushima plant in Japan and Merkel's panic U-turn on the nuclear power issue in Germany? Possibly so. Yet big events can have long consequences as well as instant impacts.
It would be a big surprise if the Greens did not significantly boost their already strong positions in state-level elections in Bremen and Berlin later this year, thus continuing the momentum. And if the Merkel coalition were to implode, which it probably won't but may do, it would be brave to bet against the Greens, currently on 21% nationally behind the SPD's 25% and the CDU's 33%, coming second.
But what has all this to do with Britain? Surely our politics march to our own, different drum? Is it not the height of fantasy to imagine Lucas, the sole MP from a party that secured a mere 1% of the national vote in 2010, leading the kind of impact which the German Greens, with at least a couple of dozen MPs in the Bundestag for most of the last 30 years, have achieved in a country with a much greater environmentalist and anti-nuclear tradition, and a fair electoral system to boot?
All true and all serious points. Yet don't overlook the similarities. The big parties are in decline in Britain too, just as they are in Germany. Electoral pluralism is growing as the big parties lose share. The main big party of the left, in particular, struggles to attract new parts of the electorate. The liberal party, although traditionally green, is in electoral eclipse, perhaps for a long time. And after the 5 May referendum we may also have a fairer voting system, in which second preferences will count, allowing smaller parties that have a wide second-preference appeal a chance of winning more seats – which is why the Greens and Ukip, unlike the much more narrowly based BNP, stand to benefit.
Yes, the British Greens are weaker and smaller than the German Greens. But the political weather in northern Europe has many similarities and it is not entirely fanciful, I think, to see the British Greens potentially beginning to follow where the German party has led. There's a small sign of that in this week's Scotsman-YouGov opinion poll, which puts the Greens a sliver ahead of the Lib Dems in fourth place in the race for the Scottish parliament on 5 May. Not a breakthrough. Not conclusive. But a glimmer of a possibility all the same. A space may be opening up in our politics.
More than anything, the British Greens need to attach themselves to a set of issues which they and the electorate both care about enough to be an effective protest party. Is nuclear power that issue, as it was at the German state elections? It certainly cannot be ignored as a focus. But the HS2 rail project through the Chilterns and the Vale of Aylesbury could be a better campaigning bet in parts of southern England and the Midlands. The Greens may be a radical party, but they have to look for conservative appeal.
Many other major uncertainties would, of course, all need to fall the Greens' way if the party is to push forward across a wide enough electoral front to create anything approaching real national momentum. Good results in Scotland – six MSPs at Holyrood instead of the current two – and Wales, where the Greens have no AMs, would be a start. The right Westminster byelection – though in 2010 only two Green candidates won more than 10% – could be an opportunity. The Greens also desperately need one or two more charismatic leaders, in addition to the popular Lucas, with the same conservative "realo" appeal on major business-friendly issues that Winfried Kretschmann managed to harness in Baden-Württemberg this week.
Right now, though, it is AV that holds the key, especially at a time when Labour is uncertain, the Lib Dems eclipsed and the Tories unpopular. Vote for AV and the Greens could eventually be Britain's fourth party. Vote against it and they will remain firmly rooted in the margins of the margins. One way or the other, we'll know after 5 May.