Two weeks of intense fighting leaves rebels and government forces low on weapons – and exposes rebel's shortcomings
Both sides in the Libya conflict are running short of weapons and ammunition after almost two weeks of intense fighting that has brutally exposed the military shortcomings of the rebels, the Guardian has been told.
The rebels were forced into yet another retreat on Wednesday, with Muammar Gaddafi's forces regaining much of the territory taken by them at the weekend and threatening to humiliate the western coalition by again coming within striking distance of Benghazi.
Concern is deepening in the coalition about the rebels' fragile morale and lack of military experience to mount a sustained challenge to the regime.
A military stalemate is now a real possibility, partly as both sides are struggling to re-equip their forces.
With fighting continuing in Misrata and regime forces pushing east as far as the strategic town of Ajdabiya, the issue of rearming has become paramount.
Coalition bombing raids had helped "chop the legs off" Gaddafi's supply chain, meaning he could no longer get replacement rockets and other ammunition to the frontline. "Ammunition is going to become an issue," said a defence source. "The regime's logistics are very stretched. Their ability to move ammunition 400 to 500 miles is becoming constraining.
"In terms of trying to bring the fighting to a stop, chopping the legs off the supply chain is a very effective move. Regime forces have been seriously degraded. But there is more to do to prevent more bloodshed, to prevent more loss of life."
While the regime is thought to be "hurting more and missing more" because many of its heavy weapons have been destroyed, the rebels could struggle to take advantage because of their own problems. They do not have a supply chain or logistical mechanisms.
Many of the rebels have not experienced being under fire before the last three weeks and there is no sign of any improvement in their fighting capability.
Though the US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, and the foreign secretary, William Hague, have hinted that arming the rebels might be allowed under the terms of the two UN resolutions, it is understood the UK has not provided any equipment so far, and there are no plans to do so at this stage. No training has been provided either.
A defence source insisted there had been "no request for ground forces" and that it was clear from the start that the coalition had "no intention" of providing ground forces.
People who had returned to Ajdabiya after it fell to the revolutionaries on Saturday again fled on Wednesday as the government's army seized two important oil towns further along the coastal highway, Ras Lanuf and Brega.
It was not immediately clear if the regime intended to try to take Ajdabiya again after air strikes last week destroyed a significant number of tanks and armoured vehicles. But the government has pressed ahead with its counteroffensive using not only the artillery that it still retains but what appears to be a larger ground force than previously deployed.
On Monday, the rebels moved to within 45 miles of Sirte, the strategically and politically important birthplace of Gaddafi, and were proclaiming they would be in Tripoli before the end of the week after advancing about 200 miles in two days under the cover of the western air strikes.
But the regime's counterattack has outmanoeuvred the poorly disciplined and ill-trained rebels who barely made a stand at Brega before turning and fleeing toward Ajdabiya. If the government were to move on Ajdabiya, that would once again open the road to Benghazi.
The revolutionary leadership, which has called for an intensification of air strikes to destroy the regime's ability to fight, said it was not hugely concerned at the see-sawing military fortunes.
"Whether we advance 50km or retreat 50km … it's a big country. They will go back the next day," said a revolutionary council spokesman Mustafa Gheriani in Benghazi.
But the situation has raised concerns in the leadership that the rebels' inability to hold territory, amid disorganisation, lack of training and poor discipline, will undermine the coalition's commitment to the fight against Gaddafi.
The coalition now believes it has a much clearer idea of the strengths and weaknesses of the two sides and the issues that could be crucial in the coming days and weeks. It is now thought that:
• Thousands of foreign fighters are in Libya helping to support Gaddafi and more are still coming from countries such as Chad, Niger and Mali. Many are being lured to Tripoli because Gaddafi pays them well. The foreigners, some of them migrant workers, are being used for security in urban areas, freeing up other soldiers to fight the rebels.
"There have been individuals identified from all of those areas. In terms of where they're employed, it's… mainly in the urban areas, and mainly for internal security purposes."
• Misrata has become a crucible of the fighting and is the focus of the regime's attempts to snuff out the opposition. Coalition air strikes have crushed attempts by Gaddafi's navy to blockade the city and attack it from the sea. Four Libyan vessels have been sunk, and one beached.
• Al-Qaida has a negligible presence in Libya and is not considered a factor at all in the current fighting.
• Gaddafi has no chemical weapons in any useable form. It is thought that he only has the remnants of the weapons programme that was dismantled in 2004, and coalition air strikes have targeted the Scud missiles that could have been used to deliver them.
• The humanitarian situation in the west of the country is thought to be deteriorating rapidly. Gaddafi has also been using news blackouts in certain areas to create a climate of uncertainty, as well as for his own propaganda purposes.
How the conflict now develops may depend on whether Gaddafi's opponents in the west of the country are prepared to rise up against a regime that has promoted a culture of fear for the last 40 years.
That culture is thought to be most acute inside the regime itself – Gaddafi is said to hold his lieutenants, extended family, and indeed his children in a state of near perpetual conflict and fear. The default position in society is assessed to be that any resistance to Gaddafi or his regime is something only talked about in the privacy of your own home.
The scale of the deployment by UK forces has also become clear. Ten Typhoon and eight Tornado aircraft are operating out of Italy, supported by the cruise missile submarine, HMS Turbulent, which has been replaced by HMS Triumph.
Getting equipment and armaments to the Mediterranean involved 24 transport aircraft, including nine C17s and 11 Hercules aircraft, and two chartered Antonov flights for 583 military personnel. The RAF so far has undertaken 130 hours of refuelling missions, involving 500,000 litres of aviation fuel.