Libyan revolution's leaders privately acknowledge turnaround is no reason to believe they can pull off military victory
The barrelling advance of Libya's rebel army over the weekend was even more rapid than its panicked retreat in the face of Muammar Gaddafi's guns a fortnight earlier.
But the revolution's leaders privately acknowledge that the turnaround in the fortunes of its ill-disciplined and poorly trained forces, which took back all the lost ground in a matter of hours without a fight, is no reason to believe they can pull off a military victory.
The conflict has been reshaped by the western air strikes against Gaddafi's tanks and guns.
But as the rebels move closer to the town of Sirte, the revolutionary council is attempting to bring on board disparate tribal and local leaders and encourage a popular uprising to pave the way for a rebel takeover.
Sirte is Gaddafi's birthplace, and he is likely to heavily defend the town. Part of the problem for the revolutionaries is that they say they lack the weapons to fight, although they have seized a number of tanks, armoured vehicles and guns abandoned during the hurried retreat of Gaddafi's army.
Even if the rebels have the men trained to use them – which is open to question – it will be hard to turn such weapons on Sirte when the UN resolution authorising air strikes specifically says those strikes are designed to protect civilians.
In those circumstances, it would be the rebels who threatened unarmed Libyans. Nato and the coalition would be hard put justifying air strikes to help the insurgents take a town which has not revolted against Gaddafi, particularly if the revolutionaries are endangering its population.
The revolutionary council hopes to alter that equation by inducing the people of Sirte to rise up against Gaddafi, in part by persuading local leaders in a town still thought to be broadly loyal to its son to recognise the tide of history and switch sides.
If the revolutionaries can pull it off, Gaddafi would face the option of putting down the uprising by force – and so create a justification for air strikes – or ceding control.
But if he were to lose Sirte, it would be likely to have a profound and possibly fatal political impact across the areas of Libya he still controls.