The marchers at the rally in London, and Ed Miliband, face three formidable obstacles in the way of a wider campaign
The fuzziness of the rallying cry – March for the Alternative – is easily mocked, but the lack of a detailed economic programme is the least of the obstacles facing those who will rally through London today. Cohesive rationales can be retrofitted on to successful resistance campaigns of the past, and yet the Hyde Park rioters of 1866 did not arrive with a draft of the Second Reform Bill in their back pockets, and nor did 1990's poll tax protestors take to the streets with a blueprint for the council tax in mind.
Like the restricted franchise of the 19th century, and Mrs Thatcher's community charge, cuts that go too far and too fast are an extreme proposition, and one that can legitimately be resisted in negative terms. The march deserves a strong turn out. Even if attendance is numbered in the hundreds of thousands that the TUC hopes for, however, it is not guaranteed to do much good. The aim must be to do more than preach to the converted, but the marchers and Labour leader Ed Miliband, who is set to address them, face three formidable obstacles in the way of a wider campaign of persuasion.
For those yelling "fight back" to every cutback, the first danger is appearing as hopeless bleeding hearts. From New Cross library to Northern Ireland Music Therapy Trust, the Guardian yesterday detailed worthy projects that will soon slash services and slam doors, after the cuts begin to bite in earnest in a few days. As that happens public squalor will undoubtedly compound private penury, and yet a cash-strapped public cannot be relied on to prioritise what the marchers conceive of as the public good. If you doubt it, look at today's Guardian/ICM poll: voters' only grumble about George Osborne's squandering of the meagre resources at hand in the budget on cheaper petrol was that he did not go far enough.
As they hear every individual cut dismissed as too early, too late or a false economy, tax-wary voters will reasonably suspect that some things have to give. Life must be breathed into the Keynesian case that days of cheap money and idle labour are the moment for the state to invest. The cuts' critics must drive home the point – as commentators did this week – that the orthodox economist voices singing in unison with the chancellor are the same ones who failed to sound a warning before the crisis hit.
The second challenge is to speak for, and be seen to be speak for, the country as a whole, as opposed to sectional interests. The pitfalls here are especially deep for a union-led campaign. Increasingly concentrated in state employment, organised labour must persuade the 85% of workers in private firms who do not carry a union card that it shares their concerns. Industrial action will inevitably concentrate on public servants' terms and conditions, including pensions far more generous than those in most companies. This action should be kept at a safe distance from political campaigning, which should focus instead on things like hospital waits and tax-credit cuts which will afflict private- and public-sector workers alike.
The third great difficulty is Mr Miliband's – namely, winning the blame game. Today's one point ICM lead for the Tories may prove to be a blip, but it is a reminder that he has not yet been able to prevail decisively. Separate YouGov analysis shows that many more voters continue to blame Labour than the Conservatives for the cuts, which is perhaps not surprising given that Labour presided over the banking bubble and burst, and also pencilled in the first tranche of deep cuts. With growth stalled and the pain about to begin in earnest, the tide could soon turn, but it cannot be assumed.
Great shows of people power give vent to emotion, but as often as not they fail to do anything more – a point underlined by both the pro-foxhunting and anti-Iraq war demos. Marchers today will express indignation with the world as it is. But as a great man once wrote, the point is to change it.