After suffering a bloody nose in local elections, even Silvio Berlusconi's closest supporters know that Italians want change
Over the past two weeks, Italy has been transformed by the results of its local elections, the run-offs for which were held on Sunday and Monday. In particular, the loss by the ruling Popollo della Liberta (PDL) of the city of Milan – Silvio Berlusconi's hometown – after 18 years of solid centre-right administration, is considered by all sides to mark the beginning of the end of the Berlusconi era. The day after, the piazza of the Duomo was packed with anti-Berlusconi voters celebrating the change. "Thank you, Milan" is the underlying substance of the most shared messages on Facebook and Twitter as well.
The day after the ballots in Milan, Naples, Trieste and Cagliari, to name the four most important local contests in which the centre-left made a clean sweep, there has been a unanimous reaction among analysts and public opinion polls. This was not a ballot about the mayors and other local authorities, it was a ballot about Berlusconi.
Even the right wing admits the defeat: "A blow for Silvio" is the headline on Libero. An editorial in La Stampa sums it up thus: "The Cavaliere lost his magic."
In typical fashion Berlusconi was not in the country to respond. He made a sneering comment from Romania, where he is on an official trip, that he was "too busy to go to his own funeral". But it's a defensive joke, in which defeat is tacitly admitted. Even his interior minister Roberto Maroni, from the coalition party Lega Nord, says the electoral results are a slap in the face for Berlusconi. The Lega is evaluating the damage it may have suffered by sticking too closely to Silvio, and considering whether to detach itself from him in order not to lose touch with its base of northern separatists.
Of course, Berlusconi suffered even worse results in 2005, at the end of his first term, when he was beaten by Romano Prodi, but he recovered within two years and was re-elected. However, this time he seems worn out by all the scandals. And even the most optimistic members of the PDL are sceptical about a quick recovery, foreseeing a bumpy ride towards a possible national congress next year to nominate a successor to Berlusconi.
They hope postponing the problem until then will give Berlusconi a better chance to keep going until 2013, when his term in office ends naturally. But this is wishful thinking on the part of Berlusconi's supporters, because the opposition now seems finally to have found the courage to speak up. Pierluigi Bersani, leader of the Democratic party, is hoping to close this parliament with an emergency government, while the more leftist Nicky Vendola, leader of the Sinistra e Libertà (Left and Freedom) breakaway grouping, dreams of new elections altogether.
"There is a time for rebellion of the pure and simple common sense … People are fed up with Berlusconi for the simple reason that they don't want to sink with him," writes Antonio Padellaro in Il Fatto. There is a moment in which even a country that has seemed lobotomised can react. Berlusconi will resist, holding on to the illusion that all can be fixed, as he always did. He will make promises, threats, he will buy this or that. But he knows it is over.
The next reckoning is in two weeks – on 12 and 13 June – with the referendum on whether to scrap the "legitimate impediment" (which protects Berlusconi from being tried) and on the privatisation of water and on nuclear power, which the government has boycotted and hopes won't get the quorum. But after the huge turnout in these local ballots to crush Berlusconism, the opposition hopes the majority of citizens will hang in there for a last push and let him know loud and clear that he is no longer representing Italy.