President Ali Saleh's latest move may well turn out to be his last
When Sadiq al-Ahmar, the chief of Yemen's most powerful tribe, announced a ceasefire after five days of fighting in the capital that has left over 100 dead, there was deafening applause from the crowd, hundreds of thousands strong, who hoped beyond hope that the revolution they started could continue peacefully. But as fighter jets screamed overhead to bomb tribesmen who had wrested control of a military compound loyal to President Ali Saleh, there was little respite from the hell engulfing Yemenis in this conflict.
One-third of the population is undernourished, while 2.7 million are classed as severely food insecure. An Arab country neighbouring oil-rich states has levels of malnutrition and the stunting of child development more often associated with Afghanistan and Africa. In the last week, the price of water in the capital Sana'a rose eight-fold – that is if any water tankers were running at all. Residents consider themselves fortunate if they get two hours of electricity a day and the price of candles has nearly doubled. For many families the daily choice is between buying water or cooking oil. With 90% of staple foods imported, oil exports shut down, the economy at a standstill, gun battles raging, and a tyrant backed by the best-equipped part of his army – the republican guards – refusing to stand down, a perfect desert storm is blowing through this land.
For four months, faced with the defection of half his armed forces and masses thronging the streets demanding his resignation, Saleh has warned that he is the pole who holds up the tent. With him gone, he told anyone who would listen, all would collapse around him. As if to make this point a reality, shortly after the collapse of the fourth attempt at mediation by Gulf Arab neighbours last Sunday, his forces took on Yemen's most powerful clan, the Ahmars, who have been bankrolling the opposition and supporting hundreds of thousands of protesters camping out on the capital's streets.
Attempts to mediate a ceasefire were continuing last night, but Saleh's latest move may well turn out to be his last. He is attempting to do something that no other leader in Yemen has succeeded in doing. The other Ahmar brothers are Hamir, the deputy speaker of parliament, Hussein, another powerful tribal leader, and Hamid, a tycoon and founder of the opposition party, Islah. Saleh can sow chaos but he cannot win. And the longer he holds out, the less able he becomes to negotiate the terms of his departure. Between now and then, a full-scale humanitarian disaster could yet unfold. Like the country itself, Yemenis have run out of slack.