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The Arizona house, the movie, the bus tour – do we dare to dream Sarah Palin is going to run for the US presidency?
As a rigid intellectual discipline, Palinology can be frustrating. Reading between the fluffed lines, ghostwritten tweets, torrential income streams and shadowy Arizona house purchases that constitute the former Alaska governor's unconventional political discourse makes Kremlinology look like the Ladybird Guide to Russian Secrets. In the context of Sarah Palin, apparently simple questions such as "Is Africa a country?" and "Is she gearing up for a presidential run?" become suddenly opaque, as experienced political watchers give up trying to discern a strategy in favour of less maddening tasks, such as juggling jelly or herding cats.
Every so often, however, the strip lights flicker on – and it appears the world was being granted just such a moment of clarity this week. And so to The Undefeated, a two-hour documentary produced with Palin's blessing, as well you might imagine of an opus that reportedly compares her to Joan of Arc.
Now, like the rumour that she has bought a house in Scottsdale, Arizona – a possible campaign base – I beg you not to read too much into this development. Even though the film does contain the caption: "From here, I can see November." And even though it will have its premiere in Iowa (I'm envisaging a Stars and Stripes carpet, and Palin saluting on it in a red sparkly dress, like the bit in Tootsie when Dustin Hoffman marches in front of the flag for a Time magazine cover). From there, it will be rolled out to the other early caucus states, while the movie was announced at the same time as a Palin bus tour of historical sites in – aha! – New England. So although I must caution against seeing this as the most sledgehammer of hints … do we dare to dream?
Certainly the news forces an urgent reordering of my wishlist. Obviously the health and happiness of loved ones is important, as well as world peace, saving the whales, and putting my money where Trudie Styler's mouth is. But it is rapidly becoming clear to me that what I want most in the world, more than absolutely anything, is for Sarah Palin to run for the Republican nomination. Can you imagine? Can. You. Imagine?
How long the thrill ride would last is up for debate. I am one of those who believes the spectacular implosion would occur well before Palin was tucking the nuclear button into her handbag and boarding Air Force One for her first state visit to Britain, and probably before squaring up for three Aristotelian debates – 270 minutes of TV gold! – with Barack Obama. But even a fortnight of it would be heaven.
I must confess I'd assumed Palin had decided the jig was up after the midterms, which were undeniably disappointing for her, let alone after she planted the crosshairs squarely over her own foot with her grimly witless handling of the Gabrielle Giffords shooting. But here we are, heading into summer, with radioactive bore Mitt Romney her only rival in Republican polls, and a growing realisation that whatever happened, it could only increase her precious earning potential. That a run at the American presidency can be seen merely as a stepping stone to greater wealth says something about the prettiness of the pass to which we have come – but given that the Palins disport themselves like the provisional wing of the Addams family, they are unlikely to care much about the upending of such fusty old conventions.
Indeed, the most fascinating aspect of a Palin run would be the chance to test Mama Grizzly's theory that the normal rules do not apply to her. This week Karl Rove – often the public face of senior Republican bewilderment at the Palin phenomenon – was cautioning that crowds turning out for this bus tour would not necessarily translate into votes, but the fact is he doesn't know. In his day, the bone idle Palin not having set foot in Iowa since last December on her book tour would have meant game over – but we are dealing with what a former colleague of Karl's would have called known unknowns, and even a few unknown ones. Once upon a time, Reagan's Marlboro Man-style campaign poster was the last word in outsiderdom. How very establishment that pose now seems, compared with the baroque nuttiness of The Undefeated.
As for the wisdom of the Palin movie's title … well, you may find yourself unable to put your finger on the precise occasion, but nonetheless be beset by the nagging recollection that the old girl was defeated in some contest or other around about the 2008 mark. And those not mulling that one may be querying whether resigning the Alaska governorship midterm, amid a cloud of allegations, really counts as a win – or even a non-defeat.
But you need to retune your brain to Palin logic. I can think of no neater example of this mindset than one found in her first book, Going Rogue, where madam explains how the New Deal caused the Great Depression. So, please, let's start looking at this the right way, and realise we've finally found a summer movie release to get truly excited about.