While the world's attention is focussed on Libya, people across the Middle East are rising up against dictators
Just six weeks after Bashar al-Assad declared that Syria was stable ("Why? Because you have to be very closely linked to the beliefs of the people. This is the core issue," he told the Wall Street Journal), it emerges that it is anything but. When police fired on protesters in a provincial town and killed three of them, 20,000 turned out angrily for the burial of the victims. Yemen's dictator, Ali Abdullah Saleh, is probably on his way out, after senior generals, ambassadors and some tribes deserted him in the wake of the massacre that took place on Friday. Egypt voted overwhelmingly for constitutional amendments which pave the way for early parliamentary elections. While the world's attention is focused on Libya, the Arab revolution is continuing, its momentum unstoppable.
Its consequences will be neither uniform nor predictable. It affects both the pro-western dictators and an autocracy like Syria, which backs movements such as Hezbollah and Hamas. It could lead to the breakup of nations but may also produce new alliances. It is ironic that a fate worse than death is being predicted for Yemen, where the west conscripted Saleh in its fight against al-Qaida, and which could divide three ways, but not for Libya, where it is backing the insurgents with air strikes, hoping against hope that the country will remain whole. Nor will independence from America and its dwindling collection of client regimes buy Assad insurance against some of the issues his people have with him and his family: political repression and crony capitalism.
In this revolutionary chaos, it is easy to miss the more significant events, some of which are purely political. Egypt is continuing to be guided by popular will, even though divisions are emerging among those who brought Mubarak's regime down about what that will lead to. Campaigning for last Saturday's referendum on constitutional reform produced some unlikely alliances: the Muslim Brotherhood, Salafists and the remnants of Mubarak's NDP all pushed for a yes vote, arguing that the military should be out of politics, and parliamentary elections held as soon as possible. If not, they argued, 2011 could yet prove to be a rerun of 1952, when the army seized power and kept it.
Youth coalitions and presidential candidates like Mohamed ElBaradei and Amr Moussa campaigned against, saying they needed more time to form proper parties. Their fear is that even though the Muslim Brotherhood has said it would contest just over a third of the seats, an anti-democratic majority would be entrenched in the new parliament. In the end 77% voted in favour on a turnout of 40%. Democracy in action for the first time in a long time.