Lord Adair Turner meets cabinet ministers to help heal split over new emission targets
Lord Adair Turner, the chairman of the government's independent advisory body on climate change, has met cabinet ministers in a bid to heal a government split threatening to reject ambitious new targets for reducing carbon emissions.
The chairman of the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) met the business secretary, Vince Cable, seeking to break down opposition to the new budget. Cable believes the proposed target will harm prospects for jobs and growth.
The cabinet is divided on whether or not to back the advice of Lord Turner's committee and commit to a fourth carbon budget. In 2008, three consecutive carbon budgets were set, up to the year 2023, but a decision has to be made for the next period. The budgets put the government of the day on target to meet a reduction of 80% of carbon emissions compared to 1990 levels by 2050.
The CCC recommended that to reach this end target, carbon should be cut by 60% by 2030.
Cable's concerns are apparently supported by the chancellor, George Osborne, and transport secretary, Philip Hammond. All are ranged against the energy secretary Chris Huhne, the cabinet office minister, Oliver Letwin, the foreign secretary, William Hague, and environment secretary, Caroline Spelman.
The prime minister is expected to make a decision on Monday. The CCC is independent and the government has not previously rejected its advice.
A source said the business secretary respected the work of the CCC and that progress had been made since Cable wrote to his party's leader, Nick Clegg, and Osborne, saying he was "unable to give clearance to the proposal as it stands". However, other ministerial sources said Cable was still opposed to supporting the fourth carbon budget.
In that letter, dated 19 April, and seen by the Guardian, Cable says the proposed carbon budget is not "cost-effective" and asks for a Treasury impact analysis to be made available to all involved in the decision.
He wrote: "Agreeing too aggressive a level risks burdening the UK economy, which would be detrimental to UK, undermining the UK's competitiveness and our attractiveness as a place to do business.
"I have a number of concerns about supporting the CCC's recommended level at this time.
"It is important that we strike the right balance between our pursuit to decarbonise the UK economy whilst ensuring that UK economic growth and employment is sustained."
Cable fears the energy secretary's plan relies on securing a cap on emissions trading across Europe that may never materialise. If this were not achieved, the UK would be left cutting carbon emissions unilaterally, which would risk putting industry at a disadvantage compared with outside competitors and "could lead to significant fiscal costs".
Instead, Cable argues for a weaker carbon target. "This level keeps us on course to meet our 2050 target and entails a steeper reduction in emissions than the previous government set for carbon budgets, which easily justifies our position as greenest government ever."
The official evidence Cable uses to back his compromise figure is a model that assumes no new investment in low-carbon energy sources until the second half of the 2020s. They are concerned Cable's solution would mean no new investment in the clean energy industry.
Cable also proposed buying "carbon offsets" to help the UK meet its targets in the 2020s, instead of cutting emissions and boosting green industries in the UK.
This is opposed by some who believe the UK should change its behaviour rather than pay China or others to cut emissions.
On Monday, the CCC's chief executive, David Kennedy, told the Guardian that a decision to embrace his committee's fourth carbon budget would be "of crucial importance. It will be the key test of the government's commitment to the low-carbon agenda."
In another leaked letter, dated 17 April, Hague said he "strongly supports" the fourth carbon budget. He writes: "I agree that we should not reject the fourth carbon budget recommended by the Committee on Climate Change … in order to retain public support for our climate policy at home we need to be able to point to similar effort abroad. If our domestic resolve is seen to be weakening, we will lose traction elsewhere."
John Sauven, the executive director of Greenpeace, said: "The Liberal Democrats' leadership keep saying they will learn from their kicking in last week's election by putting clear water between their party and the Conservatives' rightwing on issues like protecting the environment. But this letter reveals that Vince Cable is trying to water down the measures aimed at protecting the environment and boosting a green economic recovery."