Result extraordinarily good for the Conservatives, very bad for the Liberal Democrats and not particularly good for Labour
Council election results are inevitably seen as a measure of the shifting tectonic plates of national politics. Thursday's voting was of particular interest because it offered the first opportunity to test real-life public opinion since the creation of the coalition in May last year. Early analysis of the seats gained and lost suggests the Liberal Democrats' problems may also create challenges for Labour.
Major cities in the north of England saw a big shift of seats from the Lib Dems to Labour. Outside the core cities, where the Liberal Democrats were less likely to be their main opponents, Labour's performance was generally less spectacular, for example winning Preston from no overall control. Having said that, Blackpool was taken by Labour with a gain of 15 seats, mostly from the Conservatives.
In Birmingham, the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition clung on to power, albeit with a smaller majority: Labour won 14 seats, but still fell short of control. Labour also made decent progress against the Conservatives in Wolverhampton and Coventry, though the Conservatives gained Solihull from no overall control, taking seats from both Labour and the Lib Dems. Telford and Wrekin saw a huge shift to Labour, with 16 gains. In the East Midlands, Nottingham saw Labour win eight more seats.
Southern England had been seen as the area where Labour needed to demonstrate it was making progress in rebuilding its enfeebled support base. Gravesham was taken from the Tories, though in nearby Medway progress was more modest. Moreover, in Dartford the Conservatives took seats from Labour and the Lib Dems. Labour did well in Luton, gaining 11 seats, but made only modest advances in Reading, Basingstoke, Swindon, Dover and Southampton.
But the key story in the south was the way in which the Conservatives were in many places able to win seats from the Liberal Democrats. In Chelmsford, the Tories gained 10 seats and the Lib Dems lost 11, while in Eastbourne there was a shift of five seats from the Lib Dems to the Conservatives. There were similar results in places such as Elmbridge, New Forest, Wealden, Shepway, Teignbridge, Mendip and West Devon – and many more. As compared with reasonable expectations, this result was extraordinarily good for the Conservatives, very bad for the Liberal Democrats and not particularly good for Labour. Smaller parties made little headway. These overall tallies have important implications for the future of British politics.
The Liberal Democrats almost certainly lost the part of their vote that, over the years, had been attributable to protest against the other major parties. In addition, the political damage caused by public spending cuts appears to have been wholly borne by the party.
This reduction in the Lib Dems' vote share – down by almost 10 percentage points compared with 2007 – can be seen to have helped the Conservatives more than Labour. This pattern will probably be repeated in local elections in 2012 and 2013.
More importantly, if anything like this effect is felt at the next general election, the Conservatives can expect to benefit from the damage caused to the Liberal Democrats by the coalition. Of course, the Lib Dems may recover by 2014 or 2015. But if they do not, the Conservatives appear likely to be the party most likely to gain electorally as a result. Coupled with Labour's catastrophe in Scotland and the triumph of first-past-the-post, it is hard not to see David Cameron as the winner of Thursday's elections.
Tony Travers is director of the Greater London Group at the LSE