Alex Salmond likely to lead largest party as YouGov poll shows SNP with eight-point lead, but Labour set to take third of vote
Tentative signs have emerged that Labour has halted the Scottish National party's advance in the polls, just days before elections to the Scottish parliament, but Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, can still be confident he will lead the largest party.
A poll by YouGov for Scotland on Sunday suggests the SNP has slipped three points but retains an eight-point advantage.
The YouGov poll takes into account that the electorate vote both for their constituency member and a regional list. The main figures, with changes from 10 days ago, are:
• Holyrood constituency: Conservative 12% (+2), Labour 34% (+2), Lib Dem 7% (-1), SNP 42% (-3);
• Holyrood regional: Conservative 12% (nc), Labour 33% (+4), Lib Dem 6% (-1), SNP 35% (-4), Green 7% (nc).
Analysis for the paper suggests this would turn into Salmond's party winning 55 seats, up seven, while Labour would win 48 seats, up two. The analysis gives the Conservatives 12 seats, the Greens eight and the Lib Dems just five.
Such a result would hand the Tories the balance of power, although Salmond has already ruled out a coalition.
A separate poll, by Progressive Scottish Opinion, shows a bigger SNP lead:
• Holyrood constituency: Conservative 10% (+1), Labour 35% (-1), Lib Dem 6% (nc), SNP 45% (-1);
• Holyrood regional: Conservative 8% (-2), Labour 36% (-1), Lib Dem 5%(-4), SNP 41% (+3), Green 6% (+1).
This would see the SNP with 62 MSPs, Labour the main opposition with 51, the Conservatives eight, the Lib Dems five and the Greens three.