Left-leaning party that has never governed Canada could prove key in most unpredictable parliamentary campaign in 30 years
A left-leaning opposition party that has never governed Canada is poised for a strong showing in Monday's parliamentary elections, which are proving to be the most unpredictable in three decades.
Support for the New Democrats was at 30.6%, compared with 37% for the ruling Conservative party. "It's so up in the air ... as a close watcher [of politics], I'm as confused as anyone by this," McGill University professor Richard Schultz said.
The Conservatives have been in power since early 2006 with two successive minority governments, which required them to gain opposition support to pass key bills.
They say they need a majority to keep taxes low and ensure Canada continues to recover from the global crisis.
The prime minister, Stephen Harper, claims if he falls short of his goal, centre-left opposition parties will oust him and create a "dangerous" coalition guaranteed to wreck the economy.
His main target is the New Democrats, running a strong second in the polls. They promise to raise corporate taxes and social spending, and bring in a cap and trade system to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
"I think the New Democrats' economic platform would be an utter disaster for the country," Harper, who has run a relentlessly negative five-week campaign, told the Toronto Star.
Harper could benefit from vote-splitting between the New Democrats and their Liberal rivals and eke out a majority to earn a fixed four-year term. A Nanos Research tracking poll of results for the past three days put public support for the Liberals on 22.7%.
A Conservative-led coalition is not an option, given Harper's attacks on opposition parties and his highly uncompromising style of governing.
Canada's economy is one of the best performing among rich industrialised nations, although the deficit spiralled to record levels as the Conservatives spent heavily to pull Canada out of recession. All three parties promise to balance the budget within a few years, a factor that reassures markets.
"We shall see if investors remain so sanguine on Tuesday morning, but they certainly aren't jumping to any conclusions yet," said Douglas Porter of BMO Capital Markets.
The main reason for the political uncertainty is the unexpected rise of the New Democrats, a pro-labour party that has never held power and started the campaign in third place.
Leader Jack Layton was upbeat from the start, urging voters to abandon the larger two parties and give him a chance.
A New Democrat-Liberal coalition could have a major impact on energy policy. Harper sees Canada as an energy superpower that needs freedom to grow and export while the New Democrats fret about the environmental cost of unchecked developments.
Under Canada's electoral system, a party normally has needed to win about 40% of the national vote to win a majority of the 308 seats in the House of Commons.