Japan's prime minister was in trouble before the tsunami. His response to the disaster could turn things around
Naoto Kan, Japan's prime minister, already faced a mountain of problems before the earthquake and tsunami knocked his country for six. Only hours before disaster struck, Kan was insisting he would not resign over the latest party funding scandal. Such declarations have become a bit of a ritual in Japanese political life, and they often presage collapse: the country has had six prime ministers in five years. But right now Japan needs strong leadership like never before.
Kan moved swiftly to take charge in the immediate aftermath of the quake, urging MPs to help him "save the country", ordering troops into the worst-affected areas and shutting down high-risk nuclear plants and transport systems. He is surely aware of the fate awaiting leaders who fail to rise to the occasion when natural disasters hit. Taiwan's premier, Liu Chao-shiuan, was forced out in 2009 after his government mishandled typhoon Morakot. George Bush was almost blown away by hurricane Katrina in 2005.
Perceptions of Kan's performance over the coming days will undoubtedly affect Japan's future political course. According to Eurasia Review, his approval rating stands at 20%, low even by Japanese standards. His ruling Democratic party (DPJ) has lost its way since its historic 2009 victory over the long-governing Liberal Democrats (LDP). Sixty-two per cent of voters think the government is doing a bad job, an Asahi Shimbun poll found this month.
If Kan's quake leadership impresses a hitherto critical public, the prime minister could potentially turn things around, acquiring sufficient impetus to win next month's crucial budget battles and push through much-needed reforms of party funding. The LDP, whose sole interest in life up until now has been to bring down Kan and the DPJ, says it will co-operate with the government in the post-quake crisis and support additional spending measures as rebuilding begins.
Money will certainly be needed – lots of it, judging by the pictures of damage wrought in the prefectures of north-eastern Tohoku region. But it will not be easy to find. "Based on any stretch of the imagination, Japan is not in a good position to deal with a massive natural disaster," Hong Kong economist Robert Subbaraman told the Wall Street Journal. The country's debt burden was already the worst in the industrialised world, at nearly 200% of annual economic output, the Journal's William Sposato noted.
"The earthquake also hit an economy that has been struggling to recover from long-running deflationary pressures and a government that has little room to borrow the funds that may be needed for rebuilding," Sposato said. The 1995 Kobe earthquake that killed 6,400 people caused $100bn (£62bn) of damage, the most expensive natural disaster in history. This quake was bigger. On the other hand, the affected areas this time were less populated. Tohoku accounts for only 8% of GDP.
Japan's economy is better able to cope now than previously; the "lost years" of persistent stagnation have come to an end. But structural problems, such as an ageing population, the loss of lifetime corporate employment and an expensively subsidised agricultural base, continue to contribute to perceptions that the country's luck has run out after decades of record-breaking post-war expansion.
Pessimism is driven by external factors, too. Arch-rival China has now officially overtaken Japan as the world's second largest economy, a title Tokyo held for more than 40 years. While Japan grew by 3.9% last year, China's growth rate was more than double that. China's military might is also increasing exponentially while Japan cuts defence spending and squabbles endlessly with Washington over the future of US bases.
North Korea's alarming military stunts, which almost provoked a war with South Korea last year, are another unwelcome reminder of Japan's shaky geostrategic position. Maybe Beijing and Pyongyang will offer earthquake help: it would be a positive if unexpected gesture.
Political weakness, economic under-performance, social dislocation and regional insecurity – phenomena familiar to Britain, another declining power – all feed the sense that modern Japan is a house built on wobbly foundations, metaphorically as well as literally. In consequence, the country may slowly be heading for its own, less dramatic version of an Arab-style uprising, suggested Michael Auslin of the American Enterprise Institute.
"Japanese sense they are nearing a turning point ... Corporate leaders in particular understand the danger of continued political paralysis, demographic decline and inward-looking youth. The need to do something to change current trends is perceived by nearly everyone I talked with, yet an instinctive Japanese conservatism keeps thing from going on the boil," Auslin said.
Friday delivered a stunning physical shock. The country is still waiting to see whether the untested Kan and the DPJ can produce a political equivalent.