Carwyn Jones, the party leader, says that a year of coalition government has reminded Welsh voters of their Labour roots
Carwyn Jones, the leader of Welsh Labour, is in an upbeat mood. After a packed day on the campaign trail, he relaxes over tea and Welsh cakes and declares that in the 12 years since devolution he has never known Labour voters so motivated.
"In all those years, this is the one in which Labour voters have been the most enthusiastic," he says. "It's not a case of people just saying: 'We're Labour.' They are saying: 'We're Labour and we're voting for you and give us a poster to put up.' We've run out of posters in some parts of Wales.
"We've not had that over the last 12 years. I'm very optimistic that Labour voters will come out and vote."
Since the first assembly elections in 1999, Welsh Labour has governed in coalition with, most recently, the nationalists Plaid Cymru, the Liberal Democrats (1999-2003) and as a minority government (2003-2007). It has never had an overall majority and has endured some low points – including the 2009 European elections, when it was beaten into second place in a national poll for the first time since 1918.
The party was accused of taking voters for granted in traditional Labour heartlands, and was also probably being punished by supporters who did not care for New Labour.
Now Welsh Labour supporters may feel there is an even bigger enemy: the Tory-Lib Dem coalition. "There's real anger at what's happening across the UK with the coalition at Westminster," says Jones. "I think people see us a counter-balance to what is happening there. They don't want the Tory-Lib Dem coalition doing what it likes in Wales."
Following Jones, still officially the first minister, on the campaign trail is not a glitzy experience. He starts off at the Gibbonsdown children's centre in a deprived area of Barry, the south Wales port and resort made famous by the comedy drama series Gavin and Stacey. Unemployment in one local ward is more than 9% and rising.
Jane Hutt, the Labour minister for business and budget, is defending a majority of fewer than 100 here. She is also keen to claim Welsh Labour is protecting the country from the UK government's "onslaught". Policies such as keeping the education maintenance allowance, providing free prescriptions and free breakfast for primary schoolchildren are helping protect the poorest, she says.
Gill Munro, manager of the children's centre, says its funding from the assembly has been cut by 20% – but she's "grateful". "Normally we'd be up in arms, but we're glad we haven't been cut by 100%." Her gratitude may be an indication of just how desperate times are.
Next stop on Jones's tour is the Strides training project in Port Talbot. He speaks to young women practising beauty treatments on each other and to jobseekers trying to find ways back into employment, some of them having been out of work for years.
Labour activists are struck by how enthused their core voters are. One says the electorate needs another "dose of Maggie Thatcher politics" to prompt them to come back out to vote. David Rees, who is standing for re-election for Labour, believes that when the party ran the country its supporters became "apathetic" but are waking up again.
Later at the Gelligron day centre, in Pontardawe, near Swansea, Jones debates – in Welsh – with a lively bunch of pensioners before settling down over a plate of Welsh cakes (he must get offered an awful lot of them) and his cup of tea.
He says that, as well as being opposed to the coalition at Westminster, the voters are enthusiastic about Labour pledges, such as providing more training places and apprenticeships, making it easier to see doctors, and giving annual health checks for the over-50s.
During the day, David Cameron has been accusing Welsh Labour of cutting the health budget. Jones dismisses this as a "lie". Over the next three years, the health budget is staying at around £5.9bn, he says. "He's just trying to help his mates here. We have sought to protect the health budget as much as we can, given the hand we were dealt by the Tory-Lib Dem government." The Tories insist pegging the budget at that level equates to a £1bn cut.
Despite Labour's optimism, the intricacies of the Welsh assembly hybrid voting system (a combination of first-past-the post and proportional representation) makes it very difficult for any party to take overall control. So who might Labour try to govern with in coalition this time, having just spent four years working with Plaid?
"We'll cross that bridge when we come to it," says Williams. "There are so many imponderables."
And, according to Williams, the election in Wales is important for the Labour movement across the UK, a chance to show the party is capable of governing again everywhere.
"It is a responsibility. The elections are important for Labour politics across Britain. We need to demonstrate there's an alternative way to what's being put forward by the UK government and show we are rebuilding a party that can win elections across the UK again."