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Yes campaign needs 60-40 split in its favour among Labour voters, but polls show majority oppose alternative vote
Ed Miliband has made a fresh call for Labour voters to back a change to the voting system in next week's referendum, despite polls showing Labour supporters and a majority of his MPs back the status quo and plan to vote no.
The yes campaign faces a Herculean task in trying to secure approximately a 60-40 split in favour of the alternative vote among current Labour supporters if the referendum on 5 May is to be won.
The scale of support for retention of first past the post among Tory supporters means Labour supporters need to split by that margin in favour of the alternative vote to bring about reform.
Two opinion polls published on Thursday showed big leads for the no campaign among those certain to vote. A ComRes poll for the no campaign showed it leading the yes camp by 60% to 40% among those certain to vote and excluding don't knows.
When don't knows were included, the response was no 45% and yes 33%, with don't know at 22%.
The Comres poll showed voters who backed Labour at the last election planned to vote no by a margin of 61% to 39%. The no campaign gave the impression that this figure represented the split among current Labour supporters, when in fact it did not measure Liberal Democrats who had switched to Labour.
A separate New Statesman/ICD poll of people who said they were certain to vote in the referendum showed 53% saying no and 39% yes, with 8.7% still undecided. Among all respondents, the no campaign led by 46% to 34%, with 17% saying they didn't know. This poll also did not indicate how current Labour supporters would vote, only Labour supporters at the 2010 general election.
Polls on AV of current Labour supporters, including those who have switched from the Liberal Democrats, show a narrow split. An ICM poll on 15-17 April showed no leading yes among 2010 Labour voters by 20 points, 60% to 40%, but by just six points among current Labour voters, 53% to 47%.
Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat president and an AV supporter, said: "If Labour splits 60-40 for yes, we can win."
Miliband urged voters to "look beyond Nick Clegg, David Cameron or Ed Miliband and ask themselves if they are happy with politics as usual. If they are, vote no to a change in the voting system. If you want to see an end to politics as usual, if you want a fairer voting system where more votes will count and one which will change the political culture so that politicians have to say how much they agree with one another, then I think people should vote yes on 5 May."
He said Labour had been split on voting reform since its formation.
Support for the yes campaign among Labour MPs is being hampered by hard-hitting leaflets claiming there is a clear link between voting yes and making MPs work harder. One leaflet says: "Worried about your job. Your MP is not."
The yes campaign is non-party but the Labour yes campaign is desperately stepping up efforts to show that the no campaign is dominated by Tories, while the no campaign continued to highlight the backing it is receiving from a majority of Labour MPs.
The comedian Eddie Izzard, seen as appealing to younger voters, is starting a yes tour in the final days of the campaign. All polls show younger voters are more willing to back AV, but they also show they are less likely to vote.
All polls appear flawed in that 50-60% of those surveyed said they were certain to vote, and few believe turnout will reach anything like that level.
Some senior Labour frontbenchers were predicting a 15% turnout in London, where there are no other elections taking place. The polls shows 50% of London respondents intend to vote – an implausible figure.