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Unlike his president, the general is already the closest thing to an all-American hero
David Petraeus, the son of a Dutch sea captain who emigrated to the US after the second world war, has no need to produce his birth certificate to prove that he was born in the USA. Unlike his president, the general is already the closest thing to an all-American hero. The Republican nomination in 2016 could be his for the taking and, to this end, a stint heading the CIA – widely trailed yesterday – would do his political ambitions no harm. Articulate, charming and driven – the 58-year-old can still outrun his marine escorts around Hyde Park – this philosopher king is adept at marketing his own brand.
Whether that story is quite the star-studded success that Gen Petraeus's CV suggests is less clear. Widely credited with turning the war in Iraq around, he was in charge of two disasters, the capture of Mosul in 2003, only to lose it to insurgents nine months later, and the training of Iraq's army, a process that involved the disappearance at one stage of its procurement budget. Neither is the war in Afghanistan going according to the counter-insurgency rule book that he rewrote. He is due in Washington this week to present his plans for the troop reductions which are scheduled for July. The draw down of US troops is expected to be modest and will be spread over a longer period, a reflection of how hesitant the Pentagon are about the territorial gains made in Helmand and Kandahar.
The flaw of the strategy he has been pursuing is a political one. After all this time, there is still no state strong enough to occupy the areas that US troops have been clearing and holding. Local support is tentative and conditional. The handover of US military control to an Afghan one will still mean replacing one set of foreign troops with another. The percentage of southern Pashtuns in the Afghan National Army is small. State-building is proving to be patchy and conditional. And the insurgency always has another card up its sleeve – the mass prison break, the infiltration of the Afghan security forces, the multitude of soft targets. The most potent recruiter for the insurgency is the presence of foreign troops on Afghan soil, and that will not change soon. If Gen Petraeus's move to the CIA means that the policy will be less military-led, and that a clear political strategy will start to emerge, then this is to be welcomed. But no one should be holding their breath.
The other major move expected to be announced today is that of Leon Panetta, the current CIA director, to the position of defence secretary. Robert Gates, who is retiring, served as a senior cabinet member in both Republican and Democrat administrations. The Democrats needed him, but it is also a testament to his experience and realism. Alas, his advice that the US should stay out of Libya was ignored.
