Will the prospect of being a hands-on mayor soon confer more political clout than the uncertain chance of a cabinet seat?
Amid the many elections due on 5 May – to the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish devolved bodies, to local councils in much of England, plus the voting system referendum – do not overlook two other contests. In a month's time, voters in Leicester will elect a mayor, joining London and other cities with a directly elected chief. Since the Labour candidate in Leicester is the local MP Sir Peter Soulsby, the mayoral race has triggered a parliamentary byelection in Leicester South – also on 5 May.
These Leicester elections are of wider interest for two reasons. The first is that they mark the resumption, under the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition, of the previous Labour government's only intermittently successful enthusiasm for elected mayors. While some elected mayoralties – London pre-eminently – have been generally thought of as highly successful, others have not, or at least have failed to overcome the enduring opposition of their local government opponents. Stoke abolished its elected mayor three years ago, while Doncaster, after a bruising experience with two elected mayors, has begun a process which could end in abolition too. Over the past decade only about a third of more than 30 local referendums on whether to have elected mayors have resulted in a yes vote.
It is possible, nevertheless, that a tide may be turning in favour of elected mayors and that Leicester's decision, rather than Doncaster's, may be the shape of things to come. Under the localism bill, referendums on elected mayors are being targeted for May 2012 in a dozen of England's largest cities, including Leeds, Birmingham, Manchester and Newcastle. Yes votes in these cities could mark a decisive shift, which Labour, for all its efforts, failed to achieve. Ironically, local Labour opposition to the coalition could tip the scales. The attraction of fighting a city's corner with a high-profile leader in difficult times may outweigh even the most determined local enemies of change.
The Leicester race also says something about political careers. After the general election, Labour holds little power; its senior elected office-holder is currently the Welsh first minister, Carwyn Jones. If he wins in Leicester, Sir Peter's choice of local power over national opposition may tempt others. Already, the former cabinet minister Bob Ainsworth has said he might run if Coventry votes to elect a mayor. In other big cities other MPs, not just Labour ones, may also decide that the prospect of being a hands-on mayor of Birmingham, Leeds or Manchester confers more clout than the uncertain chance of a cabinet seat. An earlier generation would have thought this a perverse set of priorities; but a new one may start to see things differently.