Clik here to view.
Both camps struggle to convince voters of importance of 5 May poll – in town that would have had a different MP under AV
Paul Holmes surveys the celebrated crooked spire and historic market square in his former constituency of Chesterfield and shrugs. "It's almost certain," the former Liberal Democrat MP agrees. "But you can't tell with voters."
The British Election Study suggests it is a certainty. Under AV, the alternative voting system subject to a referendum on 5 May, the study says this Derbyshire constituency would have been one of 43 to elect a different MP. The seat's Labour incumbent, Toby Perkins, would have seen his perilously slim 549 majority wiped out by second and third preferences and Holmes, 54, a former Lib Dem party chairman and history teacher, would not be the ex-MP he is today.
He says: "Nearly two out of three votes were against Labour last year. But Labour won. And that's just ludicrous. The people defending first past the post [FPTP], I just don't know how they can. It's absolutely indefensible, excepting that turkeys don't vote for Christmas."
History acknowledges the part Chesterfield has played in past political upsets. The Cock and Pynot inn, now a museum two miles from the town centre at Old Whittington, was where parliamentarian conspirators plotted the fall of James II in favour of William III in the 1688 Glorious Revolution.
Holmes is hoping a similar zeal for change will galvanise local voters to put a cross in the yes box. To persuade them, he and other Lib Dem canvassers are pounding the constituency streets, pushing local election leaflets through 48,000 letterboxes along with literature explaining why AV is so important.
But his passion appears not to have translated to the people of a town that for more than a century prospered on the sweat of coalminers and toil of engineering and was largely Labour.
Now the pits are grassed over, housing and retail developments colonise old factory sites, and Chesterfield is reinventing itself with greater reliance on smaller businesses and technology. With the Lib Dems defending 38 seats to Labour's 10 on Chesterfield council at next month's elections, Holmes feels he can argue: "The social and economic profile is changing. It's no longer a Labour town." Except under FPTP.
But in the Pavements shopping centre and the market square, questions about AV are largely met with head shakes and apologetic responses: "No. I've not heard of it." "A referendum? Really?" "We don't keep up with the news."
Those who are aware, however, reveal that whatever message the campaigns manage to impart, decisions will be based on complex factors. There is shared disgust over MPs perceived to be more crooked than the town's famous spire, over broken promises on tuition fees, fears for the NHS, and the leniency they feel has been shown to bankers. But how this negativity will manifest itself on 5 May is not clear.
"If I don't vote, it will be in protest," says Darren, 45, a joiner. His daughter is at university, but his son has decided he can't afford to go. Banks have destroyed Darren's small business and his health, he claims. And he can't forgive MPs over their expenses. "The way they have explained [AV], it's like solicitors' talk, it's too complicated and looks as if they are hiding something. As for Clegg. Well, if he were on fire, I wouldn't chuck a bucket of water on him. He's reason enough to vote no."
Perkins, 40, who reclaimed the seat for Labour, opposes the change, and admits under AV he might not have won. Unlike Holmes, he hasn't been pushing the message on doorsteps. Because Labour has no party line – Ed Miliband is for, many backbenchers are against – it is not a registered party under the Electoral Commission for or against AV, he says, "so we can't just put the no campaign stuff in with our election leaflets".
He says there is a "pitiful" awareness of the issue. "I've spoken to a hell of a lot of people in the last few weeks, and I think only five have asked me about it, one of whom was in favour, and four against."
He's concerned some Labour voters may see Miliband in favour as well as Tony Benn, who represented Chesterfield for 17 years, and assume the Labour line is backing a yes vote. But he is hoping the "Clegg effect" may garner votes for the no camp. "There's a real sense of anger with Clegg. Indeed when I discussed it with my father he said: 'I really can't make up my mind about AV. But I know if I vote no, Nick Clegg will be sad on 6 May, and that's enough for me.'"
Benn, who backs the yes campaign, says he thinks AV would not have altered Chesterfield's result. "The Labour vote recovered and the Lib Dem vote declined, and I don't think AV would have made any difference," he says.But he is not convinced the pro-AV campaign has done enough. "With the Conservatives and a lot of Labour people against it, and the general sense of cynicism about politics, I think it is not all that certain it will go through. And I don't know to what extent people understand it."
Perkins is also hopeful that older voters, those most likely to turn out, are more likely to vote no – such as John Walker, 80, a former engineering worker, who, after studying the arguments in detail, has concludes: "Australia and Fiji don't seem too happy with it, and I can't see a good reason to change."
But some are wavering. "It's a bit clearer now," said former bakery worker Lily Wightman, 64, after AV was explained. "Yes," said her friend Kathleen Starbuck, 62, a former canteen worker at Chesterfield transport, "perhaps it is a bit fairer."
Wightman adds: "I used to like that Nick Clegg – before he went over. But I don't think I'd let that cloud my judgment."
Benn, who supports the Yes campaign, believes AV would not have altered Chesterfield's result. "The Labour vote recovered and the Lib Dem vote declined, and I don't think AV would have made any difference," he said.
He is also not convinced the Yes campaign has done enough to win. "With the Conservatives against it and a lot of Labour people against, and the general sense of cynicism about politics, I think it is not all that certain it will go through," he said. "And I don't know to what extent people understand it".
Alternative result
Research in a British Election Study working paper from the University of Essex suggests that under AV 43 seats would have been won by a different party at the 2010 general election.
Lab to Con: Dudley North.
Lab to Lib Dem: Aberdeen South, Edinburgh North and Leith, Edinburgh South, Newport East, Swansea West, Ashfield, Birmingham Hall Green, Bristol South, Chesterfield, Durham City, Hull North, Islington South and Finsbury, Lewisham West and Penge, Newcastle upon Tyne North, Oldham East and Saddleworth, Oxford East, Rochdale, Sheffield Central, Streatham.
Con to Lab: Aberconwy, Cardiff North, Brentford and Isleworth, Broxtowe, Hendon, Hove, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Sherwood, Stockton South, Warrington South.
Con to Lib Dem: Montgomeryshire, Bristol North West, Camborne and Redruth, Colne Valley, Harrogate and Knaresborough, Newton Abbot, Oxford West and Abingdon, Reading East, St Albans, Truro and Falmouth, Watford, Weston-super-Mare, York Outer.