Westminster's focus may be the AV campaign – but the local elections may prove a better guide to the political future
Local elections are always shaped by national circumstances. This year will be no different. When Britain votes on 5 May, many people will be judging the national government. A good result for Labour and a bad one for either or both of the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats will be taken as a verdict on the coalition. But this will be fair only up to a point.
In places such as Herefordshire – where the It's Our County movement is taking on established national parties – the local nature of the contest is obvious. Everywhere there will be local variations, as a panel of political academics explained at a Political Studies Association briefing this week. They suggested the Liberal Democrats might outpoll their dire national ratings, thanks to an established if troubled local base – and that Labour might not do quite as well as some national surveys suggest. With councils up for grabs in much of England, plus devolved elections in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, and the referendum on electoral reform, the days after 5 May could descend into a battle of spin and counter-accusation as each party seeks to interpret the results in its favour.
Before this begins it is worth establishing some benchmarks for the local contests. In total 9,400 English seats in more than 6,000 wards in 279 councils are up for grabs. London is the only significant English city with no local contest. These elections follow a four-yearly cycle, and when they last took place, in 2007, the Conservatives did notably well and the Liberal Democrats sustained their share of the vote. The estimated national vote then, suggest academics Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, would have been Conservatives 40%, Labour 26% and Liberal Democrats 24%. This year, they suggest on the basis of recent byelections, Labour may poll around 38%, the Tories between 34% and 38%, and the Lib Dems between 16% and 22% – well down on their long-term local election average, though, if this forecast is correct, not as badly as the party fears.
What matters more is control of councils and council seats. The last time Labour came first in local elections was in 1999, and to return to its strength then in one leap it would now need to make more than 1,000 gains in England. While only 39% of current Labour seats are being contested this year, more than 50% of Conservative and Lib Dem councillors face re-election. Both parties are very exposed. A record number of minor parties are contesting seats too: the BNP is fragmenting and being chased by new far-right forces. Westminster's attention may be on the AV campaign – but the composition of council chambers across the country may prove a better guide to the political future.