Brigadier James Chiswell described insurgency in Afghanistan as 'increasingly fractured and increasingly demoralised'
Amid widespread predictions of a bloody fighting season in Afghanistan, the commander of British forces there has described the Taliban-led insurgency as "increasingly fractured and increasingly demoralised".
Brigadier James Chiswell, said that in response to increasing attacks from British, US, and Afghan, forces in Helmand province, insurgents were "examining their options".
However, though he suggested the insurgency had been badly hit by the deployment of 30,000 US marines who joined the 9,500 British troops over the past year, the insurgency had proved in the past to be "adaptable and resilient".
Chiswell, just returned from Helmand after commanding 16 Air Assault Brigade there, predicted that the Taliban would shift to asymetric tactics and intimidation – soft civilian targets. Referring to recent spectacular attacks in neighbouring Kandahar province, he said those were unlikely to endear the Taliban to the local population.
Taliban suicide bombers used an ambulance to attack a police training centre in Kandahar in an incident the Taliban promised to investigate. A suicide bomber killed 10 people in an attack on peace talks between tribal elders in Afghanistan's eastern Kunar province.
However, Chiswell said the insurgency was "under pressure" and there was a sense of optimism, above all confidence, among the local population. Whether it was the result of a "seasonal feel-good factor or something more profound and enduring", could really only be answered this time next year.
Senior British officials in London predict that the forthcoming fighting season will be bloody and that there is a political vacuum around the commitment to end Britain's military combat role in Afghanistan by the end of 2014.
Growing frustration about the lack of political or diplomatic progress, was reflected by David Miliband, the former foreign secretary who wrote in the New York Times: "Our leverage will decline, not improve, as 2014 approaches." He added: "The insurgency can spread, outstripping the ability of international and Afghan forces to check its growth."
Asked whether it was time for a political surge, Chiswell replied: "Our take is it is all politics, as much politics as war amongst the people". He added: "If you get the politics locally right, it sucks the oxygen out of the insurgency... Only time will tell but I'm very positive we are heading in the right direction. It comes down to a local sense of confidence".
British military chiefs, including General Sir David Richards, chief of the defence staff, are foremost among those increasingly frustrated by the lack of political progress now that they say they have sufficient troops in Afghanistan and that the international – foreign – force there cannot achieve more. It is now up to Afghan leaders at the local as well as national level, and the growing number of Afghan security forces, they say.
The new fighting season, which will start as soon as the poppy harvest is in, is likely to hit Afghans, security forces in uniform, as well as civilians, observers - including senior British government officials, warn.