ONS confirms it is investigating claims that March inflation figures were leaked before their release
Rumours that Wednesday's inflation data was leaked before its release at 9.30am, potentially making millions of pounds for City traders, has prompted an investigation by the Office for National Statistics.
The independent agency, which compiles the inflation data each month, said it had launched an inquiry into the potential leak of official information after it was contacted by financial news agencies.
A spokesman for the ONS said an initial inquiry had found no evidence of malpractice, though officials were continuing to review market movements for any untoward activity.
He said: "We are aware of rumours in the city that the inflation figures published at 9.30am today may have been leaked in advance of publication. Our initial check shows no evidence of such a leak: there were major movements in the exchange rates for the pound at 9.30 as would be expected. We are continuing to review the situation."
News agencies reported that rumours were circulating before the release of the official data that the consumer prices index (CPI) figure would be recorded at 4.0% – considerably below market expectations of 4.4%. The rumours contributed to a fall in sterling against the dollar on the futures market.
The talk proved to be correct, with the ONS confirming that inflation, as measured by the CPI, had unexpectedly declined to 4.0% in the 12 months to March.
It is an offence to leak official government data, and any unauthorised disclosure could result in an enforcement investigation by the regulators charged with maintaining an orderly market based on equal access to market-moving information.
Reuters reported that markets had already been positioning for a below-consensus figure, with some participants citing rumours of a reading of CPI at 4.0%. Before the data was released, short sterling interest rate futures rose, and after the data was officially released, they remained at the same level, placing a question mark over whether the information had already been divulged to some traders.
Monthly inflation data is given a day early to the Treasury and the Bank of England.