How one disagreement can close down a country
What happens if there's no agreement?
The shutdown would begin at midnight on Friday, the first visible sign being on Saturday morning when the Smithsonian museums and galleries in Washington would be greeted with signs, already printed, saying that they are closed due to government shutdown, and the annual Cherry Blossom parade is cancelled. National parks such as Yellowstone and Yosemite would also close. About 800,000 of the federal government's 2.8 million civilian staff face staying at home. The tax office would stop processing many returns, the national housing body would stop new loan guarantees, and the national institutes of health would start to refuse new patients.
Who else would be affected?
The impact would also be felt overseas. In the 1995-96 shutdown, about 20,000-30,000 visa applications a day went unprocessed at US embassies. The White House, like other federal bodies, would have to lay off staff. One of the consequences of the 1995 shutdown was that Monica Lewinsky was on duty at a time when many staff were on forced leave.
Who would not be affected?
Those considered essential for security and safety, such as the military, the department of homeland security, air traffic controllers and law enforcement agencies. The military, with about 1.4 million in service, would receive pay cheques up until Friday and would continue to earn money after that date but not be paid until the issue is resolved.
Why has this crisis developed?
The billions of dollars being bandied about in 2007 and 2008 at the end of the Bush era and the start of the Obama administration in bank bailouts and stimulating the economy upset many, mainly conservative voters, and led to the Tea Party movement. Many Republicans were elected in November with Tea Party support promising to cut the federal deficit, which has risen from $5tn in 1996 to $14tn. Obama has promised to cut $33bn but the Republicans want a further $7bn.
Who will be blamed?
In the last shutdowns Bill Clinton received most blame. But afterwards his poll figures rose, possibly even helping his re-election.
What would a shutdown cost?
There have been 17 shutdowns since 1977. The last one, in 1995-1996 (for six days in November 1995 and three weeks from December 1995 to January 1996) cost $1.4bn.
What will happen?
The chances of a deal are more likely than not. Polls show the US almost equally split over who to blame. Republicans may be reluctant to force a shutdown again, with the economy fragile.
Is this only the start?
This is only a standoff about the budget up until September. A bigger budget battle is looming over the budget for next year and beyond.